Night session SHFE tin price rebounded above the 280,000 threshold Spot market transactions showed slight recovery [SMM Tin Morning Brief]

SMM Tin Morning Brief on October 21, 2025:

Futures: The most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2511) opened slightly lower in the night session and then fluctuated upward, closing at 281,260 yuan/mt, up 0.83% from the previous trading day.

Macro: (1) International Data Corporation (IDC) expects global smart glasses shipments to exceed 40 million units by 2029, with the Chinese market share steadily increasing. The projected five-year compound annual growth rate (2024–2029) is 55.6%, the highest growth rate globally. (2) A spokesperson for the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), in response to media inquiries on the national economic performance in the first three quarters of 2025, stated that artificial intelligence empowerment has strengthened, and the digital economy is booming. This year, cutting-edge technologies such as artificial intelligence and brain-computer interfaces have been strategically deployed ahead of schedule, bringing a sense of technological advancement and futurism that has delivered many surprises and boosted rapid growth in the digital economy. In the first three quarters, the value-added of digital product manufacturing above the designated size increased by 9.7% YoY, while the value-added of information transmission, software, and IT services rose by 11.2% YoY. Within high-tech manufacturing above the designated size, the production of smart unmanned aerial vehicles and smart vehicle-mounted equipment increased by 59.9% and 25.1% YoY, respectively. Various digital products and smart terminal devices are becoming increasingly popular, and the application of large models has driven up enterprise demand for computing power, with server production up 11.5% YoY. (3) Silan Microelectronics announced that the company and its wholly-owned subsidiary, Xiamen Silan Microelectronics, plan to jointly invest 5.1 billion yuan with Xiamen Semiconductor Investment Group and Xiamen Xinyi Technology Industry into their subsidiary, Xiamen Silan Jihua Microelectronics Co., Ltd., and sign the "Investment Cooperation Agreement for the 12-inch High-End Analog Integrated Circuit Chip Manufacturing Production Line Project." Among this, Silan Microelectronics and Xiamen Silan Microelectronics will contribute a total of 1.5 billion yuan. Silan Jihua, as the implementing entity for the "12-inch High-End Analog Integrated Circuit Chip Manufacturing Production Line Project," will construct a 12-inch integrated circuit chip production line, with products positioned as high-end analog integrated circuit chips. The project has a planned total investment of 20 billion yuan and a planned capacity of 45,000 wafers per month, to be implemented in two phases.

Fundamentals: (1) Supply-side disruptions: Tin ore supply is tightening in major production areas such as Yunnan, and some smelters maintained maintenance shutdowns in October (Bullish ★). (2) Demand side: Orders have decreased significantly due to weak demand in the consumer electronics and home appliance markets. Downstream procurement remains cautious, and high prices are noticeably suppressing actual consumption. Limited boost from emerging sectors: Although increased AI computing power and growth in PV installations have driven some tin consumption, their current contribution remains small and insufficient to offset the decline in consumption from traditional sectors.

Spot Market: As tin prices temporarily fell below the 280,000 mark, the wait-and-see sentiment among some downstream and end-user enterprises eased, leading to small-scale restocking. However, some downstream and end-user enterprises continued to make just-in-time procurement. Overall, trading activity in the spot market showed signs of recovery.

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